MCI Pre-Match Preview: Manchester City vs Watford

Death, taxes and Manchester City winning Carabao Cups. For some time, fewer things were more certain for City and their fans. However, despite having lifted the league cup four consecutive times in a row in recent years (eight overall), the trophy has become somewhat of an afterthought in the last three seasons as we prioritized other competitions and chased European glory. It was only the day before yesterday that Pep Guardiola’s men and the Etihad faithful welcomed Arsenal in a heated affair, one which saw City scrape a draw thanks to John Stones’ late equalizer. Aching limbs must be ignored and lingering emotions set aside as City continue their league cup campaign, welcoming Championship side Watford FC in the third round of the domestic competition. 

Manchester City News:

It is now public knowledge that Rodrigo, City’s leading Ballon D’or contender, will be out for the rest of the season due to an ACL tear suffered against Arsenal. While we did not expect him to play in this particular matchup, it will be interesting to see the ripple effects of his injury and how it affects our matchday squad. Obvious names such as Mateo Kovacic, John Stones, Rico Lewis and Ilkay Gundogan will be seen as options to fill Rodri’s shoes and perform in his role, while someone like Matheus Nunes might be seeing this as his opportunity to show what he’s capable of. 

City’s injury list continues to grow as Rodri joins an already injured Nathan Aké and Oscar Bobb, both dealing with long-term injuries and recovery. The good news is, Kevin De Bruyne’s injury isn’t seen as long term and he could be ready to come back for our league fixture this weekend. Erling Haaland will receive a day off to attend to personal matters and we are expecting a start today for reigning PFA POTY Phil Foden, who had a brief cameo against Arsenal. City fans will be excited and eager to see their star man back on the pitch consistently, following an extended summer break and lengthy recovery process.

Watford News:

After a difficult campaign last season, former Manchester United player Tom Cleverly’s Watford have been decent in the Championship, winless in their last three but hovering in the middle of the pack. However, their Carabao Cup form may prove there’s more than meets the eye due to their current aggregate score of 7-0 in the competition. Championship squad or not, anything can happen in football and we don’t expect them to simply roll over or be a pushover. 

Over the summer, Watford brought in former Tottenham midfielder Moussa Sissoko, who City will need to keep a watchful eye on. Ryan Adams, the Hornet’s lone scorer in their most recent match, a 4-1 loss to Norwich, is out due to a hamstring issue. First choice goalkeeper Daniel Bachmann and defender Francisco Sierralta are also expected to be out. On-loan striker Daniel Jebbison played for Bournemouth in the previous round of the competition and is cup-tied while former City youngster Tom Dele-Bashiru, who made his senior debut under Guardiola in this competition back in 2017, is set to start in the Watford midfield. 

Predicted Lineup: 

Whichever City 11 is selected will certainly try their best to win, but in terms of priorities, this competition is clearly the least important. We expect the lineup to reflect that fact. Expect youth and fringe players to be given a chance to impress, lead by Phil Foden. 

• Stefan Ortega gets the nod as our cup keeper. John Stones lines up at RCB, with Rico Lewis inverting ahead of him and also falling in beside him when our back line shifts from a back three to a back four. We can see Ruben Dias starting and playing the full first half but depending on the scoreline, we anticipate an early substitution for an academy lad, perhaps Jahmai Simpson-Pusey. Having played almost the full 90 against Arsenal, Dias will likely welcome the additional rest. 
• City’s academy fullback Josh Wilson-Esbrand steps in for Josko Gvardiol. Wilson-Esbrand started in pre-season for Pep and although unlikely, this could be a chance for him to stake his claim as a first team rotation option.
• Mateo Kovacic appears to be the most logical choice as the base of the City midfield. The Croatian international has been exceptionally solid since coming to Manchester, possessing the innate qualities and mental fortitude to fit into our playing side and locker room seamlessly. It would not surprise me if at some point (also depending on scoreline), EDS captain and City starlet Jacob Wright replaces Kovacic, who will likely see an increase in minutes and responsibility as Rodri’s “replacement”. Having Rico Lewis as his midfield partner will certainly leave City fans beaming with pride as they cheer on two of our own. 
• This is the perfect fixture for the highly-touted James Mcatee and energetic Matheus Nunes to step in and contribute, providing aggressiveness in the duels and a bit of technical brilliance, the former especially. Against a Championship side that will likely be employing a low block, their attacking prowess could be crucial to breaking open this game. While the goal is the win the game, City will also be ensuring sufficient rotation enables our first team starters are rested and protected from fatigue and additional injury. 
• Jeremy Doku’s unpredictability and explosiveness on the right, combined with Jack Grealish’s control and creativity on the left will compliment each other in a game where City will simultaneously look to dominate possession while creating chances. Grealish’s defensive efforts cannot be understated when it comes to minimizing the threat of a Watford counter. 
• Due to the lack of a back-up striker, we see Phil Foden as the most likely candidate to lead the line in a fluid False 9 type of role. We’ve seen Phil thrive in this role in the past and his ability in tight spaces, positional intelligence, and ball-striking could be what we need. We anticipate a free role for Foden, dropping deeper to connect forward play, rotating in and out with City’s wingers and allowing someone like Matheus Nunes to use his athleticism and pace to crash the box. He will be ready and raring to go, and a deep compact block like the one Watford will employ could mean some dazzling inside channel play Foden is known for.

Match Predictions:

Clean sheets have been a rarity for City these days but this may be the matchup for City’s backline to deliver an elusive shutout. We anticipate a Phil Foden Man of the Match performance, as well as goal involvements from Mcatee and Grealish. Factoring in City’s home advantage, we see City emerging victorious in a comfortable 4-0 win. 

5 Fun Facts about this Fixture: 

• Matches between Man City and Watford have often been high-scoring. One of the most memorable was in September 2019, when City won 8-0 at the Etihad Stadium, marking one of the largest wins in Premier League history.
• The two teams met in the FA Cup Final in May 2019, where Manchester City secured a 6-0 victory, completing a domestic treble that season.
• For context, Pep Guardiola’s individual record of four successes in the League Cup is as many as Tottenham have managed (4) and double the number of Arsenal successes (2) in either side’s history.
• The Hornets’ record in this fixture is abysmal. City have won each of the past 15, a run going back to 2007 that includes a 6-0 shellacking in the 2019 FA Cup final.
• While Manchester City has dominated the Premier League era, Watford has had some memorable upsets in their history, including winning the 1984 FA Cup Final against Everton, highlighting their competitive spirit.

Written By: Harrison Fowles & Sheikh